An increase in private school enrollment to almost 4,000 students has impacted enrollment counts in the Sandy Springs learning region of Fulton County Schools (FCS), according to officials.
Elementary enrollment decreased by slightly over 200 students this academic year, Tarika Peeks, executive director of Operational Planning told the FCS board before its work session on March 12. That compares to the previous year when it dropped by 72 students.
The school district uses enrollment forecasts for planning and budget development. Short-range estimates identify needed resources such as staffing, textbooks, buses, groceries, and classroom needs such as modular or portable classrooms, Peeks said. Long-range estimates inform and guide the capital construction plan and help inform the timeline for the delivery of construction projects.
Elementary school enrollment dropped by 98 students in Sandy Springs, with 92 fewer students in middle school and 13 fewer in high school, according to Peeks’ report.
FCS had an overall decrease in enrollment of 1,851 students in the current academic year compared to 2023-2024, she said. That enrollment was 1,774 students less than the school district expected.
Across the district, 12,167 students attend private schools. Peeks said the Sandy Springs region had almost 4,000 private school students, an increase of 136 students from the previous academic year. She said the data may not be comprehensive as it came only from schools that responded to the school district’s annual survey.
Peeks said housing market conditions such as low inventory, increased interest rates and increased costs will continue to impact the district’s enrollment estimates.
The Sandy Springs region’s housing inventory shows three months of supply with 23 new homes available in the fourth quarter of 2023. Active and planned residential development remains concentrated in the central portion of the city. FCS staff reviewed all future pending, approved, and active developments in Sandy Springs with a little over 2,000 units. They projected 774 new residential homes over the next 10 yearss.
Peeks said FCS anticipates continued slow home sales throughout 2024. The Georgia State University Economic Forecasting Center reported that ongoing affordability challenges, low housing inventory, and no resale inventory will continue to put pressure on the housing market, Peeks said.
“As we look to the future, we anticipate a steady continuation of enrollment decline over the next five years by 2,360 students,” she said.
The Sandy Springs region’s share of the forecast of enrollment decline over the next five years is 775 fewer students.
School board member Michelle Morancie asked if the large number of apartments in Sandy Springs causes an increase in student mobility. She said when rents are raised, people may move out of the district and asked if that was tracked.
Peeks said they track new developments, and most of the apartments in Sandy Springs are not new developments. But trends in grade level mobility will show that sometimes in places where rent goes up the school district will lose students.
School board member Lillie Pozatek said the school district’s steady decline will make an impact in the next five years.
“I think that is important for our constituents and our families to know that with that we might have to discuss school closures and reorganization of things,” she said.
Correction: Due to an error in the Fulton County School’s Enrollment Projections Report, the increase in private school enrollment in Sandy Springs in the current academic year was incorrect. An increase of 136 private school students was recorded.