As President Donald Trump begins the second year of his second term, LGBTQ advocacy organizations say they are shifting into a more aggressive posture — armed with new data that shows how quickly hard-won progress is eroding under the Trump-Vance administration.
The Human Rights Campaign hosted its 2026 Election Strategy Kick-Off meeting last week at the National Press Club in Washington, where leaders shared fresh polling data detailing how Trump’s first year back in office has affected LGBTQ Americans — and how pro-equality candidates can respond heading into the midterms.
HRC President Kelley Robinson hosted the event, joined by MSNBC’s Jonathan Capehart, Reproductive Freedom For All President Mini Timmaraju, and Joey Teitelbaum of Global Strategy Group. Together, they laid out what they described as a dire political and cultural moment for LGBTQ people — and the concrete steps campaigns must take to counter a surge of anti-LGBTQ rhetoric and policy coming from the GOP.
“The emergency that we warned about is no longer a warning — it is the reality that we are living inside,” Robinson said. “Donald Trump may not have started this fire, but he surely poured gasoline on it.”
New data collected by HRC and Democratic pollsters at Global Strategy Group (GSG) paints a grim picture of life for LGBTQ Americans in Trump-era America — particularly when it comes to visibility, safety, and economic security.
Acceptance and visibility declining
One of the clearest trends from the survey is a decline in perceived acceptance. The data found that 21.6% of all U.S. adults say acceptance of LGBTQ+ people has declined in the past year. Among LGBTQ+ adults themselves, that number jumps to 29.7%.
That erosion of acceptance is translating into tangible changes in behavior. Nearly half of LGBTQ+ adults surveyed — 47.5% — reported being less out in at least one area of their lives over the past 12 months, at least in part due to cultural shifts or executive actions taken by the Trump-Vance administration.
The survey found that 26.5% of LGBTQ+ people are less out at work than they used to be, 25.4% are less out in healthcare settings, and 28.3% feel less out in public spaces. While the choice to be out varies by person and circumstance, researchers note that higher levels of being openly LGBTQ — particularly when safety is assured — have historically been linked to greater societal acceptance.
Visibility is slipping even more broadly. More than half of LGBTQ+ adults — 51.1% — say they are less visible than they were a year ago. Among LGBTQ+ parents with school-aged children, 40.1% reported being less visible at their children’s schools — the highest rate of retreat in any measured environment.
“Nearly half of LGBTQ+ people say they are less out than they were just a year ago,” Robinson said. “Visibility — something we fought generations to build — is slipping before our very eyes.”
Capehart emphasized that these numbers have real-world consequences beyond personal identity.
“Half the community retreating back into the closet is distressing, but understandable in these times,” Capehart said. “The danger is when people disappear from public life, because it becomes easier to ignore their suffering.”
Decades of research from organizations such as Gallup and PRRI have consistently shown that increased visibility correlates with greater public support for LGBTQ+ rights. When people personally know someone who is LGBTQ+, they are significantly more likely to support equality — creating what advocates describe as a positive feedback loop. The new data suggests that loop is now reversing.
Voters are ahead of politicians
Despite the cultural retrenchment reflected in the data, GSG’s findings also offer a clear political opening for candidates who run unapologetically on equality — particularly in competitive districts.
According to the polling, voters in battleground and purple districts “overwhelmingly support” nondiscrimination protections and LGBTQ equality. These voters, the data show, are deeply wary of politicians inserting themselves into people’s personal lives while failing to address urgent issues like the cost of living, healthcare, and public safety — especially when those intrusions target transgender people.
Teitelbaum, GSG’s senior vice president for research, said the polling makes clear that Republican messaging on transgender issues is far out of step with the electorate.
“In no state have we ever seen more than 18% of voters say being transgender should be illegal,” Teitelbaum said. “That means more than 80% of Americans are not where Republicans are — and that gives us room to go on offense.”
HRC leaders pointed to the recent Virginia gubernatorial race as a case study in how candidates can successfully navigate anti-trans attacks. Democratic Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger faced a barrage of anti-trans messaging from her opponent, yet refused to cede ground on equality — instead redirecting her campaign toward economic concerns and quality-of-life issues.
“Look at Virginia and the good governor that’s about to be inaugurated, Abigail Spanberger,” Robinson said. “She faced a flood of anti-trans attacks. More than half of her opponent’s ad budget was spent trying to divide and mislead voters, but she didn’t flinch. She stood her ground, and voters rewarded her by a win of over 15 points in Virginia.”
Economic, healthcare impacts deepen
Beyond cultural shifts, the survey shows that the administration’s policies are having measurable economic and health impacts on LGBTQ Americans.
LGBTQ+ adults are twice as likely as non-LGBTQ+ adults to say their financial situation has worsened over the past year. Advocates pointed specifically to the administration’s hardline rollback of diversity, equity, and inclusion initiatives as a key driver of workplace hostility. Among LGBTQ+ workers whose employers ended or scaled back DEI programs, 57.4% reported experiencing stigma or bias at work.
Healthcare access is also deteriorating — not only due to Trump’s aggressive push against gender-affirming care, but across other critical areas as well. Access to HIV prevention and treatment has become significantly more difficult. LGBTQ+ adults on Medicare or Medicaid are more than twice as likely to report barriers to HIV care compared to those with other forms of insurance. Among LGBTQ+ adults earning less than $75,000 per year, 41.5% reported difficulty accessing HIV prevention or treatment.
“Since Donald Trump returned to office, LGBTQ+ Americans are worse off in every area this survey measures than we were one year ago,” Robinson said. “We are less visible, less safe, and less economically secure.”
A playbook for going on offense
In response, HRC is urging more pro-equality candidates to run — and to do so strategically. The organization outlined a campaign playbook designed to help candidates define themselves early, counter anti-trans attacks, and proactively promote their values rather than playing defense.
The framework centers on five core pillars:
- Share your story before attacks come
- Lead with your values
- Address concerns directly
- Turn the tables and gain voters
- Go big
U.S. Rep. Julie Johnson of Texas joined the meeting virtually, echoing the call for more openly pro-LGBTQ leadership in Congress.
“They’re banking that the politics of hate and division can distract voters from their failure to address soaring health care costs, high grocery bills, and the scourge of gun violence — and we cannot let them win,” Johnson said. “The answer is not to hide or stay silent. The answer is to be prepared.”
Johnson, the first out LGBTQ member of Congress from the South, said real change in Washington begins with elections.
“We need to flip the House to a pro-equality majority that will focus on the needs of all Americans, without exception,” she said. “With HRC’s help, candidates like me can go on offense and lean into our values, because the American people want real leadership, full equality, and a commitment to freedom.”
Robinson closed the event with a blunt assessment of the moment ahead.
“This is a different United States of America than it was just months ago,” she said. “Preserving democracy and protecting LGBTQ lives both require the same thing: winning power and refusing to back down.”