I’m more excited about the Academy Awards than I have been in years, and it’s all because of one thing: good options! If you’ve been paying attention this year, you know that the race appears to have come down to two films: Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners.”
When a race comes down to so few movies like this, one of those movies usually becomes the designated “Oscar villain:” AKA, the movie everybody loves to hate. Think “Parasite” versus “1917” in 2019 (I will ride for “1917,” though), or think of the 2018 ceremony, in which we had numerous Oscar villains and one of them (“Green Book”) actually won.
This year, it really doesn’t feel like there’s an Oscar villain to be found. I guess you could say it’s “Hamnet,” but a) I think that’s a good movie, and b) I don’t think it actually stands much of a chance of winning. The fact that the two movies leading the pack this year are both more than deserving of winning Best Picture – and the fact that the majority of these nominees are also very good – is a really exciting place for movies to be. Call me a sap, but I’m pumped!
Alas, while the race has narrowed in some ways, there are still a lot of unknowns in the air, which makes predicting this year’s awards harder than normal. But I’ve done my best, and I’m locking in my answers. Here we go.
Best Picture:
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
My prediction: “One Battle After Another”
Dark horse: “Sinners”
Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” has won so many major precursors – including the Producers Guild of America Awards which, like the Academy Awards, uses ranked voting and is one of the most reliable bellweathers for Best Picture. “Sinners” just won the big prize at the Actor Awards, which might have given the film a little bit of a boost while Oscar voting was still open. But, I think “One Battle” has it sewn up.
Actor in a Leading Role:
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
My prediction: Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Dark horse: Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Onto the most exciting race of the night! But really, this is the rare case of a pretty exceptional acting category across the board. I will be so happy no matter which way this swings (and if Ethan Hawke somehow pulls it out, I will probably cry).
If you asked me a month ago, I would have said Timothée Chalamet had this in the bag. But, the streets seem to have gotten a wee bit tired of his “Marty Supreme” act (although it certainly helped the film at the box office), and when Michael B. Jordan won at the Actor Awards earlier this month, I could feel the energy in that room through my television screen.
Actress in a Leading Role:
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
My prediction: Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Dark horse: None
This has been an awards run for the ages. It seems, even though she committed the cardinal sin of hating cats, Jessie Buckley cannot be kept down. If she does not win Best Actress on Sunday … I’m not going to make any promises I can’t keep, but I’ll be shocked, I’ll tell you that!
Actress in a Supporting Role:
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
My prediction: Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Dark horse: Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Historically, the supporting acting awards are given out early in the telecast, and this year, they could tell us a lot. For example, if Wunmi Mosaku wins here for “Sinners,” that might mean the tides have really turned in that film’s direction. If Teyana Taylor wins, that might mean we’re about to see a “One Battle After Another” wave. However, I think Amy Madigan might take it home here (which, funnily enough, would tell us nothing). The precursors have been all over the place for this one, but Madigan is the only nomination from “Weapons,” which might be a bad thing, but also might signal to the Academy that this win would be the only way to honor that film.
Actor in a Supporting Role:
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Delroy Lindo, “Sinners”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
My prediction: Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Dark horse: Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Okay. Every single other prediction I’ve seen has put Sean Penn here. But I’m holding out hope for Stellan Skarsgård! He won the Golden Globe, and he’s an industry titan who’s never won an Oscar before. Penn has won two, and while there seems to be a lot of love for him and this performance in Hollywood, I wonder if the “One Battle After Another” boys will cancel each other out. I might be completely wrong here, but sometimes, you have to go with your heart.
Directing:
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
My prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Dark horse: Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Paul Thomas Anderson is one of our greatest living filmmakers and he has never won Best Director. He won at the Directors Guild of America Awards, and I don’t know if he’ll ever have a better chance than this. I’ll be ecstatic if he wins – “One Battle After Another” was my favorite movie of the year – but my personal pick for this one would be Coogler. Unfortunately, the Academy has a thorny history with Black directors, to say the least. In the Academy’s nearly 100-year history, no Black filmmaker – not Spike Lee, not John Singleton, not Steve McQueen – has ever won Best Director.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
“Bugonia,” Will Tracy
“Frankenstein,” Guillermo del Toro
“Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
“One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams,” Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
My prediction: “One Battle After Another,” Paul Thomas Anderson
Dark horse: “Hamnet,” Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell
These next two writing categories feel very sure to me. If the split this year really is “One Battle After Another” versus “Sinners,” this is where we’ll see it manifest.
Writing (Original Screenplay):
“Blue Moon,” Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident,” Jafar Panahi; script collaborators: Nader Saïvar, Shadmehr Rastin, Mehdi Mahmoudian
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
“Sinners,” Ryan Coogler
My prediction: “Sinners,” Ryan Coogler
Dark horse: “Sentimental Value,” Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier
See above.
Cinematography:
“Frankenstein,” Dan Laustsen
“Marty Supreme,” Darius Khondji
“One Battle After Another,” Michael Bauman
“Sinners,” Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams,” Adolpho Veloso
My prediction: “One Battle After Another,” Michael Bauman
Dark horse: “Sinners,” Autumn Durald Arkapaw
This is a tough one for me this year, mostly because there’s a lot of stellar work to be admired. If Autumn Durald Arkapaw won, she would be the first woman to ever win the Best Cinematography award. But, Michael Bauman won with both the American and British Societies of Cinematographers, which I think gives him the edge.
International Feature Film
“It Was Just an Accident”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirât”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”
My prediction: “Sentimental Value”
Dark horse: “The Secret Agent”
The Academy seems pretty enraptured with Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” (as am I), and this might be the only place to award it. However! Never underestimate the power of Brazil. “The Secret Agent” could surge.
Animated Feature Film:
“Arco”
“Elio”
“KPop Demon Hunters”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
My prediction: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Dark horse: “Zootopia 2”
I don’t have a child, but I know several people with children whose Spotify wrapped was dominated by the “KPop Demon Hunters” soundtrack. And I’m not going to pretend some of those songs didn’t sneak their way onto mine. It’s a pretty weak year for animation, but “KPop Demon Hunters” was an absolute sensation, so this feels pretty locked.
Music (Original Score):
“Bugonia,” Jerskin Fendrix
“Frankenstein,” Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet,” Max Richter
“One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson
My prediction: “Sinners,” Ludwig Göransson
Dark horse: “One Battle After Another,” Jonny Greenwood
This is Jonny Greenwood’s third nomination in the Original Score category, and he’s never won, so that might swing a little bit of momentum his way. Even so, I’m going with Ludwig Göransson here: he already has two Academy Awards, and he did win last year for “Oppenheimer.” But “Sinners” relies so much on its score, and it’s really hard to deny the artistry of what he’s done.
Music (Original Song):
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless”; music and lyric by Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”; music and lyric by Ejae, Mark Sonnenblick, Joong Gyu Kwak, Yu Han Lee, Hee Dong Nam, Jeong Hoon Seon and Teddy Park
“I Lied to You” from “Sinners”; music and lyric by Raphael Saadiq and Ludwig Göransson
“Sweet Dreams of Joy” from “Viva Verdi!”; music and lyric by Nicholas Pike
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams”; music by Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner; lyric by Nick Cave
My prediction: “Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters”
Dark horse: “I Lied to You” from “Sinners”
If you didn’t listen to “Golden” this year, did you live under a rock?
Casting:
“Hamnet,” Nina Gold
“Marty Supreme,” Jennifer Venditti
“One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulukundis
“The Secret Agent,” Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners,” Francine Maisler
My prediction: “Sinners,” Francine Maisler
Dark horse: “One Battle After Another,” Cassandra Kulukundis
This is a brand new award for the Oscars this year, so it’s impossible to look back and see what types of movies usually win here. The Best Cast in a Motion Picture Award at the Actor Awards is not exactly the same thing, but seems about as close as you can get. The Actor Awards went with “Sinners,” so that’s what I’ll be going with here.
Costume Design:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Deborah L. Scott
“Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley
“Hamnet,” Malgosia Turzanska
“Marty Supreme,” Miyako Bellizzi
“Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter
My prediction: “Frankenstein,” Kate Hawley
Dark horse: “Sinners,” Ruth E. Carter
If there’s one thing the Academy is going to do, it’s love on Guillermo del Toro. His movies have garnered a total of 34 nominations over the years and eight wins, and I have a feeling that “Frankenstein” is about to sweep up on Sunday in many below-the-line categories.
Documentary Feature Film:
“The Alabama Solution”
“Come See Me in the Good Light”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“The Perfect Neighbor”
My prediction: “The Perfect Neighbor”
Dark horse: “Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
Documentary is an interesting category, and usually one that lacks as much consensus as others heading into the big night. The precursors have also been a little all over the place for this one, but Geeta Gandbhir’s “The Perfect Neighbor,” which chronicles the 2023 murder of Ajike Owens through mostly body cam footage, took the world by storm last year.
Film Editing:
“F1,” Stephen Mirrione
“Marty Supreme,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another,” Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value,” Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners,” Michael P. Shawver
My prediction: “One Battle After Another,” Andy Jurgensen
Dark horse: “F1,” Stephen Mirrione
While I was doing my research for this predictions piece, I was surprised to learn that the American Cinema Editors (which awarded “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” this year) have a pretty weak track record when it comes to predicting this category (maybe because people who are not editors in the Academy don’t have the best idea of what good editing means? I don’t know!) I still think “One Battle” will take it home, but I wouldn’t count out “F1.”
Makeup and Hairstyling:
“Frankenstein,” Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
“Kokuho,” Kyoko Toyokawa, Naomi Hibino and Tadashi Nishimatsu
“Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
“The Smashing Machine,” Kazu Hiro, Glen Griffin and Bjoern Rehbein
“The Ugly Stepsister,” Thomas Foldberg and Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
My prediction: “Frankenstein,” Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel and Cliona Furey
Dark horse: “Sinners,” Ken Diaz, Mike Fontaine and Shunika Terry
While “the most” make-up doesn’t always constitute “the best” make-up, I do think Jacob Elordi’s transformation in “Frankenstein” – which was made up of multiple individual prosthetics and took hours on end – is pretty impressive stuff.
Production Design:
“Frankenstein,” production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau
“Hamnet,” production design: Fiona Crombie; set decoration: Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme,” production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Adam Willis
“One Battle After Another,” production design: Florencia Martin; set decoration: Anthony Carlino
“Sinners,” production design: Hannah Beachler; set decoration: Monique Champagne
My prediction: “Frankenstein,” production design: Tamara Deverell; set decoration: Shane Vieau
Dark horse: “Marty Supreme,” production design: Jack Fisk; set decoration: Adam Willis
“Frankenstein” won for this at the BAFTAs, as well as with the set decorators and art directors guilds. That feels pretty set, but Jack Fisk is an absolute legend of production design (“Days of Heaven,” “Mulholland Drive,” “There Will Be Blood,” to name a few). He’s never won an Oscar, and I’d like to see that changed.
Sound:
“F1,” Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
“Frankenstein,” Greg Chapman, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira, Christian Cooke and Brad Zoern
“One Battle After Another,” José Antonio García, Christopher Scarabosio and Tony Villaflor
“Sinners,” Chris Welcker, Benjamin A. Burtt, Felipe Pacheco, Brandon Proctor and Steve Boeddeker
“Sirāt,” Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
My prediction: “F1,” Gareth John, Al Nelson, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Gary A. Rizzo and Juan Peralta
Dark horse: “Sirāt,” Amanda Villavieja, Laia Casanovas and Yasmina Praderas
Fast cars go vroom vroom! This was my favorite part of “F1,” and I can only imagine it was everyone else’s too.
Visual Effects:
“Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
“F1,” Ryan Tudhope, Nicolas Chevallier, Robert Harrington and Keith Dawson
“Jurassic World Rebirth,” David Vickery, Stephen Aplin, Charmaine Chan and Neil Corbould
“The Lost Bus,” Charlie Noble, David Zaretti, Russell Bowen and Brandon K. McLaughlin
“Sinners,” Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
My prediction: “Avatar: Fire and Ash,” Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett
Dark horse: “Sinners,” Michael Ralla, Espen Nordahl, Guido Wolter and Donnie Dean
I am a person of taste, which means that “Avatar: Fire and Ash” was my favorite of James Cameron’s “Avatar” films (Varang hive, we ride at dawn). Unfortunately, no one in the Academy felt the same way. But, if “Fire and Ash” wins here, it will mean that every “Avatar” movie so far has won in this category, which is pretty impressive. Don’t bet against Big Jim!
Animated Short Film:
“Butterfly”
“Forevergreen”
“The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
“Retirement Plan”
“The Three Sisters”
My prediction: “Butterfly”
Dark horse: “The Girl Who Cried Pearls”
I’m going a little bit on my gut with most of these shorts categories (these awards are always a little bit more difficult to predict). However, “Butterfly” is the most visually interesting of this group, and I think that will set it apart.
Documentary Short Film:
“All the Empty Rooms”
“Armed Only With a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud”
“Children No More: Were and Are Gone”
“The Devil Is Busy”
“Perfectly a Strangeness”
My prediction: “All the Empty Rooms”
Dark horse: “The Devil is Busy”
As with the Documentary Feature category, most of these nominees cover extremely important, often very sad, topics. “All the Empty Rooms,” which takes a look at the empty bedrooms of children who were killed in school shootings, is heartbreaking. I’m making my dark horse here “The Devil is Busy,” which was co-directed by Atlanta filmmaker Christalyn Hampton.
Live Action Short Film
“Butcher’s Stain”
“A Friend of Dorothy”
“Jane Austen’s Period Drama”
“The Singers”
“Two People Exchanging Saliva”
My prediction: “Two People Exchanging Saliva”
Dark horse: “A Friend of Dorothy”
Both my prediction for this category and my dark horse played at last year’s Out on Film Festival, so props to them for having good taste! And with that, we’re done. Tune in on March 15 at 7 p.m. on ABC or Hulu to see if I’m right.