This story first appeared in the Jan. 13, 2026 edition of our “Family Meal” dining newsletter, published every Tuesday at 5 p.m.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes
There’s been a lot of chatter online and in the news about the recent spate of restaurant closures in Atlanta and what these closures mean for the food scene. But what you might not realize is that December and January tend to be higher closure months for the restaurant industry – and not just in Atlanta.
Leases are up and new agreements can’t be reached. Yearly permits come due again. Ownership changes and retirements take place. Year-over-year patronage is down. A restaurant has simply run its course and it’s time to close up shop.
The restaurant industry is notoriously difficult. Restaurants run on thin margins and high operating costs, while relying on a fickle dining public living on a diet of social media content meant to induce FOMO (fear of missing out). It’s a huge achievement for a restaurant to make it beyond a decade.
Stats to consider:
- The average lifespan of a restaurant is five to 10 years.
- Around 30 percent of restaurants fail within the first five years.
- Close to 17 percent of restaurants fail within the first year.
- According to Toast, restaurant profit margins (percentage of annual sales) average between 3 and 5 percent.
- Rent on commercial spaces in Atlanta has increased by almost 28 percent since 2020.
- Most restaurants lock in leases at five or 10 years.
- In Atlanta, most restaurants must include one off-street parking space per 100 square feet. (A patio counts toward square footage.)
Why pull thousands of dollars worth of permits for a restaurant that might not last the year, or sign another 10-year lease with an untenable rental agreement? Decisions need to be made, and the turning of a calendar year provides a clean break. In fact, most restaurant closures come down to a complicated combination of factors.
But do these recent closures signal the decline of Atlanta’s restaurant scene? No.
Are developers and high rents choking out local restaurants? Somewhat.
Is the city doing enough to protect small businesses from predatory landlords, inflation-related price hikes, or providing enough business incentives, loan opportunities, or support to grow our restaurant scene? No, and something the Rough Draft dining team wants to dig into this year.
Is the Rough Draft dining team keeping an eye on the pace of restaurant closures in 2026? Absolutely.
High restaurant closure years tend to be cyclical, especially if a set of restaurants opened around the same time.
For instance, in 2025, the leases were up on a few original Ponce City Market food hall tenants, including W.H. Stiles Fish Camp, Miso Ko, and Ton Ton. Thai restaurant Terminal 26 will replace W.H. Stiles this spring, while NoriFish and Okiburo will replace Miso Ko and Ton Ton.
A new wing of the central food hall opened last summer, featuring three Asian street food stalls backed by the owners of Vietnamese restaurant Vietvana. Cocktail bar and listening room La Cueva will open soon in the former Root Baking Co. space on the second floor of the food hall.
And while we did lose a handful of legacy restaurants in 2025, including Daddy D’z, JavaVino, Julianna’s, and Eats, not all is lost.
Daddy D’z owner Christianah Coker-Jackson isn’t giving up and wants to reopen the Grant Park barbecue restaurant elsewhere in Atlanta. The owners of Wild Heaven Beer purchased Eats and will reopen it inside the brewery’s West End taproom this spring. JavaVino transitioned to a wholesale coffee business. All-day cafe and workspace At Arbeta will replace JavaVino in Poncey-Highland, serving its coffee.
A large concentration of restaurant closures within a specific neighborhood, however, is more worrisome. This typically indicates a problem. Remember the closures in West Midtown in 2024 and 2025?
According to a Rough Draft report last summer, a powder keg of overdevelopment, steep rents, high parking fees, too-similar restaurant concepts, lack of everyday amenities, and traffic fueled a rapid succession of closures around West Midtown. In response to the closures, restaurant and business owners formed a coalition to regularly discuss issues before bigger problems arise. Then, in October, Lidl finally brought a grocery store to the area, opening at the Interlock complex on Northside Drive.
Related stories:
• Will the Northwest Beltline boost Westside Atlanta restaurants?
• As people scale back dining out, Atlanta restaurants roll out budget-friendly menus
Even amidst a turbulent economy, rising ingredient costs, and diners tightening purse strings, there were restaurant success stories in 2025, with restaurateurs across metro Atlanta adapting their businesses to meet the times. New restaurants like Gula Indonesian Desserts continued family legacies on Buford Highway. To stay relevant, restaurants like Breaker Breaker and Roshambo adjusted menus and service to meet customers’ expectations and budgets. To secure the future of Home Grown in Reynoldstown, owners Kevin Clark and Lisa Spooner purchased the 15-year-old restaurant’s property on Memorial Drive.
There’s a lot to look forward to in 2026, including several anticipated restaurants led by Atlanta’s next-gen chefs, serving everything from Thai bar food to dishes exploring the African diaspora. If our trends predictions hold true, lunch and late-night dining are finally returning to Atlanta’s post-pandemic restaurant scene.
But as diners, we also need to do our part to keep restaurants afloat. For many of us, restaurants act as third spaces in the community.
Dine at your favorite restaurant on a random Tuesday night when you don’t feel like cooking. Make it a point to eat at an old-school or legacy restaurant that might not have the sexiest vibe or shiniest social media presence. Become a regular at a neighborhood spot you’ve always adored. Attend neighborhood planning meetings and speak up when you have questions or concerns about the direction of development.
In other words, support the restaurants you don’t want to see disappear in 2026.