Fulton County Schools (FCS) projects a 1,000-student drop in enrollment for the 2025-26 academic year, a trend expected to continue over the next five years.
Executive Director of Operational Planning Tarika Peeks shared the enrollment projections with the Fulton County Schools Board of Education during its March 11 work session. She outlined enrollment trends, shared housing, and demographic data, and explained how this data will affect long-range enrollment projections.
Peeks said the most significant factor contributing to enrollment decline is that the incoming kindergarten classes are much smaller than graduating classes. She said, however, the rate of decline has slowed down compared to last year.
Housing challenges, rising home prices, and higher interest rates will contribute to a slow decline in enrollment, Peeks said.
Though ninth-grade enrollment remains strong in Sandy Springs, enrollment continues to decline at FCS schools in the city limits.
“The Sandy Springs Region experienced a decrease of 207 students, with a total population of 8,700 students. Elementary saw the largest decline by 127 fewer students, while middle declined by 21 students, and high decreased by 59 students,” Peeks said.
Peeks said FCS projects a district enrollment of approximately 86,000 students for the next school year. The continued downward trend over the next five years was projected to result in 3,300 fewer students enrolled in the school district by the 2029-30 school year.
Peeks said another factor working as a major catalyst for new student enrollment is new residential development. No newly constructed homes were sold in the Sandy Springs region in the fourth quarter of 2024, Peeks said. Housing trends show the Sandy Springs region has a six-month supply of new housing, with 22 homes available.
FCS tracks 4,600 future developments that are pending, approved, or active in Sandy Springs.
New residential housing is fueling steady enrollment growth in the South Region, Peeks said. However, the North Region will have an overall enrollment decline with fewer home sales.
The South Region had 478 new homes for sale in the fourth quarter. FCS predicts the construction of approximately 16,000 new homes over the next 10 years.
The North region had 354 new units for sale in the fourth quarter. FCS predicts an estimated 4,500 housing units will be built in the next 10 years.
Educational alternatives could impact enrollment. Private schools reported 12,000 Fulton County students are enrolled in 172 private schools. Peeks said the data only reflects the schools that reported their enrollment.
“The Sandy Springs Region has almost 3,900 private school students, a decrease of 94 students from the previous year,” Peeks said.
The North Region has the largest private school population, with 6,400 students. That declined by 76 students from last year.
FCS compares enrollment trends with neighboring school districts. Gwinnett, DeKalb, Clayton, Atlanta, and Cherokee experienced population growth this year. Other metro districts, including Cobb, Forsyth and Henry County experienced a decline like Fulton.
National trends show many public school districts are seeing a decline in student enrollment. The National Center for Education Statistics projects a five percent drop in elementary and high school enrollment by 2031. That would result in a loss of around 2.7 million students nationally.
