It’s time for the best time of the year: when awards prognosticators come together and make Oscars predictions for cinema’s biggest night – and inevitably, end up surprised by one thing or another.
This year has been as fluid of a race as I’ve seen in recent memory, with different movies leapfrogging to that frontrunner status on any given day while others are rocked by what seems like a new scandal every week. While that uncertainty made my predictions this year a little harder than usual, I can’t help but enjoy it! Going into an Oscar night with the feeling that anything could happen is what movie magic is all about.
Keep scrolling for my predictions.
Best Picture:
“Anora” [WINNER]
“The Brutalist”
“A Complete Unknown”
“Conclave” [Sneaky second]
“Dune: Part Two”
“Emilia Pérez”
“I’m Still Here”
“Nickel Boys”
“The Substance”
“Wicked”
The ranked-voting system at the Oscars tends to favor movies that are consensus picks. That might come out in favor of “Conclave,” and that Best Ensemble win at the SAG Awards certainly puts them in a good spot. But, I think (and maybe also hope) the other precursors will win out here. “Anora” won big at the PGAs and DGAs, and the PGAs in particular have a bit of a stronger correlation with Best Picture than SAG.
Best Actor
Adrien Brody, “The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, “A Complete Unknown” [WINNER]
Colman Domingo, “Sing Sing”
Ralph Fiennes, “Conclave”
Sebastian Stan, “The Apprentice”
I think I’m taking a bit of a gamble on this one, but hear me out! Brody does phenomenal work in “The Brutalist,” and things have mostly gone his way precursor wise. But when Chalamet pulled out the SAG award win over the weekend, I think this race shook up a little bit. We’ll have to wait and see if the press tour to win all press tours – along with Chalamet’s pursuit of greatness – extends all the way to the Academy.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked”
Karla Sofía Gascón, “Emilia Pérez”
Mikey Madison, “Anora”
Demi Moore, “The Substance” [WINNER]
Fernanda Torres, “I’m Still Here”
Madison’s win at the BAFTAs gave her a little bit of a boost recently, but if I’m being honest, I think Moore has had this sewn up since her Golden Globes win and speech back in January.
Best Supporting Actor
Yura Borisov, “Anora”
Kieran Culkin, “A Real Pain” [WINNER]
Edward Norton, “A Complete Unknown”
Guy Pearce, “The Brutalist”
Jeremy Strong, “The Apprentice”
Best Supporting Actress
Monica Barbaro, “A Complete Unknown”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked”
Felicity Jones, “The Brutalist”
Isabella Rossellini, “Conclave”
Zoe Saldaña, “Emilia Pérez” [WINNER]
I decided to group the supporting awards together, given that they’ve both been a foregone conclusion essentially since both movies premiered. If Saldaña and Culkin don’t win, you can color me shocked.
Best Director
Jacques Audiard, “Emilia Pérez”
Sean Baker, “Anora” [WINNER]
Brady Corbet, “The Brutalist”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Perhaps Corbet could still sneak in with a win, but the DGA winner – in this case, Baker – has a pretty strong chance at winning the Best Director Oscar.
Best Original Screenplay
Sean Baker, “Anora” [WINNER]
Moritz Binder, Alex David and Tim Fehlbaum, “September 5”
Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold, “The Brutalist”
Jesse Eisenberg, “A Real Pain”
Coralie Fargeat, “The Substance”
Best Original Screenplay is kind of the “cool kids” award at the Oscars – think “Get Out,” “Juno,” “Lost in Translation,” etc. Even if I didn’t think “Anora” was going to do pretty well in the rest of the categories it’s nominated for, I do think Baker would still take this one home.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jacques Audiard, Thomas Bidegain, and Nicholas Livecchi, “Emilia Pérez”
Joslyn Barnes and RaMell Ross, “Nickel Boys”
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar, “Sing Sing”
Jay Cocks and James Mangold, “A Complete Unknown”
Peter Straughan, “Conclave” [WINNER]
“Nickel Boys” picked up the best adapted win at the WGAs, and while I would love to see that happen on Oscar night, I think “Conclave” has a far better chance. This is probably where we’ll see the results of those BAFTA and SAG wins.
OTHER WINNING PREDICTIONS:
Best International Feature
“Emilia Pérez,” France [WINNER]
“Flow,” Latvia
“The Girl with the Needle,” Denmark
“I’m Still Here,” Brazil
“The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Germany
Best Cinematography
Jarin Blaschke, “Nosferatu”
Lol Crawley, “The Brutalist” [WINNER]
Greig Fraser, “Dune: Part Two”
Paul Guilhaume, “Emilia Pérez”
Ed Lachman, “Maria”
Best Documentary Feature
“Black Box Diaries”
“No Other Land” [WINNER]
“Porcelain War”
“Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”
“Sugarcane”
Best Animated Feature
“Flow
“Inside Out 2”
“Memoir of a Snail”
“The Wild Robot” [WINNER]
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl”
Best Costume Design
Lisy Christl, “Conclave”
David Crossman and Janty Yates, “Gladiator II”
Linda Muir, “Nosferatu”
Arianne Phillips, “A Complete Unknown”
Paul Tazewell, “Wicked” [WINNER]
Best Film Editing
Sean Baker, “Anora” [WINNER]
Nick Emerson, “Conclave”
Dávid Jancsó, “The Brutalist”
Myron Kerstein, “Wicked”
Juliette Welfling, “Emilia Pérez”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“A Different Man”
“Emilia Pérez”
“Nosferatu”
“The Substance” [WINNER]
“Wicked”
Best Original Score
Volker Bertelmann, “Conclave”
Daniel Blumberg, “The Brutalist” [WINNER]
Kris Bowers, “The Wild Robot”
Clément Ducol and Camille, “Emilia Pérez”
John Powell & Stephen Schwartz, “Wicked”
Best Original Song
“El Mal,” “Emilia Pérez” [WINNER]
“Like a Bird,” “Sing Sing”
“Mi Camino,” “Emilia Pérez”
“Never Too Late,” “Elton John: Never Too Late”
“The Journey,” “The Six Triple Eight”
Best Production Design
Judy Becker, “The Brutalist” [WINNER]
Beatrice Brentnerova, Paul Ghirardani and Craig Lathrop, “Nosferatu”
Nathan Crowley, “Wicked”
Suzie Davies and Roberta Federico, “Conclave”
Zsuzsanna Sipos, Shane Vieau and Patrice Vermette, “Dune: Part Two”
Best Sound
“A Complete Unknown”
“Dune: Part Two” [WINNER]
“Emilia Pérez”
“The Wild Robot”
“Wicked”
Best Visual Effects
“Alien: Romulus”
“Better Man”
“Dune: Part Two” [WINNER]
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
“Wicked”
Best Animated Short Film
“Beautiful Men”
“In the Shadow of the Cypress”
“Magic Candies”
“Wander to Wonder” [WINNER]
“Yuck!”
Best Documentary Short Film
“Death by Numbers” [WINNER]
“I Am Ready, Warden”
“Incident”
“Instruments of a Beating Heart”
“The Only Girl in the Orchestra”
Best Live Action Short Film
“A Lien” [WINNER]
“Anuja”
“The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”
“I’m Not a Robot”
“The Last Ranger”
